Friday, April 18, 2008

Strike on Iran, Eminent


Between May 1st and June 30th 2008 the U.S. may strike Iran’s nuclear facilities.

By de Andréa

We should look at Dick Cheney’s recent trip through the Middle East as possible preparation for a U.S. attack on Iran. Cheney’s hastily arranged 9-day visit to the region, which began in the middle of March, included stops in Israel, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Oman, Turkey, and the Palestinian territories.

The entire Middle East is gearing up for war, from Pakistan to Egypt; it is difficult to say who will be on whose side; most, will likely retaliate against anyone that is a threat. Israel is preparing for heavy casualties, suggesting that although Israel will not necessarily take part in the first strike, it is expecting to be the target of Iranian retribution.

Netanyahu Warns World of a Nuclear Iran
While Israel was recently conducting the largest home-front military exercises in its history, Israel’s National Infrastructure Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer warned Tehran about attacks on the Jewish state. “An Iranian attack will prompt a severe reaction from Israel, which will destroy the Iranian nation,” he said. He predicted that “in a future war, hundreds of missiles will rain on Israel,” but added that “Iran is definitely aware of our strength.”

In addition to the long-range missiles that Iran has been developing to strike Israel, Israel’s military strategists see the Iranians using Iranian backed terror groups like Hamas operating from Palestine and Hezbollah from Lebanon to launch attacks against Israel. According to the Washington Post, Iran has supplied Hezbollah with an arsenal that now contains “tens of thousands of missiles.”

Israel’s recent war exercises, including preparations for chemical and biological weapons attacks, drew a sharp response from Syria which held its own military drills. The Syrian government accused Israel of preparing for a war which Damascus predicted would be begin anytime between May 1 and the end of June.

Former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently told foreign journalists that Israel needs to confront the threat posed by Iran. Privately he has been telling associates his number one priority is have the Israeli military strike Iran if the U.S. is unwillingto do so.
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The Israeli newspaper Haaretz disclosed that Israeli Mossad believes that North Korea has transferred technology and nuclear materials to Iran to aid Tehran’s secret nuclear weapons program.

Iran remains intransigent to international pressure to offer full transparency relating to its nuclear program. According to an AP report, the head of Iran’s nuclear program “abruptly canceled a meeting with the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency on Sunday, dealing a blow to the U.N. monitor's efforts to investigate allegations that Iran is making nuclear arms.

A number of signs indicate that, contrary to the belief President Bush is a lame duck who will not act before he leaves office, the U.S. is poised to strike before Iran can acquire nuclear weapons and carry out the threat of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to “wipe Israel off the map”: According to intelligence sources, the administration now rejects the false and misleading National Intelligence Estimate report issued in December that asserted Iran had halted its nuclear weapons program in late 2003.

The French daily Le Monde reported in March that newly surfaced documents show that Iran has continued developing nuclear weapons. In late 2006, U.S. intelligence reportedly intercepted a phone conversation in Iran’s Defense Ministry in which the nuclear weapons program was discussed.

The commander of U.S. forces in the Middle East, Admiral William Fallon, resigned in March amid media reports that he broke with President Bush’s strategy on Iran and did not want to be in the chain of command when the order comes down from the President to launch a strike on the Islamic Republic. It is possible that Fallon’s departure signaled that the U.S. is preparing to attack Iran.

According to a Tehran-based Iranian news network, Press TV, Saudi Arabia is taking emergency steps in preparing to counter any “radioactive hazards” that may result from an American attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. The Saudi newspaper Okaz disclosed that the Saudi government has approved nuclear fallout preparations, and the Iranian network reported that the approval came a day after Cheney met with the kingdom’s high-ranking officials, further stating that the U.S. “is now informing its Arab allies of a potential war.”

The American commander in Iraq, Gen. David Petraeus, has stepped up criticism of Iran, telling Congress last week that Iranian support for Shiite militias posed the most serious threat to Iraq’s stability. He told senators: “Iran has fueled the violence in a particularly damaging way.” Last week, the U.S. said Iran was providing insurgents with missiles that were killing Americans and hitting targets within the U.S. occupied Green Zone in Baghdad. Gen. Petraeus’s remarks to Congress could lay the groundwork for a U.S. attack on Iran.

***President Bush said in a speech at the White House on April 10 that Iran, along with al-Qaida, are “two of the greatest threats to America.” He said Iran “can live in peace with its neighbors,” or “continue to arm and train and fund illegal militant groups which are terrorizing the Iraqi people … If Iran makes the wrong choice, America will act to protect our interests and our troops and our Iraqi partners.” He later told ABC News that if Iran continues to help militants in Iraq, “then we’ll deal with them.” Members of Congress are said to have been briefed by the administration about the rising Iranian threat.

Iran did little to cool tensions when it announced that it had begun installing 6,000 new centrifuges at its uranium enrichment plant in Natanz. Centrifuges can enrich uranium to a low level to produce nuclear fuel or a high level for use in weapons. The announcement of the new centrifuges by President Ahmadinejad came on April 8, Iran’s National Day of Nuclear Technology, which marked the second anniversary of Iran’s first enrichment of uranium. Iran already has about 3,000 centrifuges operating in Natanz, and the new announcement was widely seen as a show of defiance to international demands to halt a nuclear program that the U.S. and its allies insist is aimed at building nuclear weapons for the expressed purpose of Attacking Israel and Western interests.

THE BOTTOM LINE: Is the U.S. just showing its teeth, or will it actually attack? That is the zillion dollar question.

A lot more rides on this threat than I believe the administration realizes. Muslims regard empty threats as a sure sign of weakness, moreover, I am not so sure that they are wrong in that assessment. We should have regarded the Iranian support of the Iraqi militia as an act of war against the U.S. along time ago. That failure to retaliate was already considered by Ahmadinejad as sign of weakness. The failure of the U.S. to recognize this cultural kink in the Muslim ideology is what likely fueled the desire of Iran to continue the pursuit of nuclear weapons in the first place. So if Bush’s pitch here is just another balk then we will have only done more to fuel the fire in the belly of Islam.

While Israel likely will not join the initial strike against Tehran, if Iran retaliates against Israel by dropping missiles in their front yard, Israel will not only return the favor but will likely annihilate Iran. If you live close by you may want to purchase a gas mask…

***It is ignorance that Bush does not consider Hamas right here in this country as one of the greatest threats to America.

de Andréa

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